For much of the 20th century, the message was simple: all wildfires are bad and must be put out. This relentless suppression, embodied by icons like Smokey Bear, has inadvertently backfired. Decades of putting out natural fires have left forests choked with excess fuel, while climate change is creating hotter, drier conditions 5 6 . The result is a new era of catastrophic "mega-fires" that are more frequent, intense, and destructive 7 .
Facing this escalating threat, scientists are fundamentally changing their approach. The goal is no longer to eliminate fire at all costs, but to manage it strategically. Researchers at the Rocky Mountain Research Station have developed an interdisciplinary process called wildfire triage, which helps decision-makers target mitigation efforts where they matter most—protecting our most vital social, economic, and ecological resources 1 .
Why We Can't Fight Every Fire
The scale of the problem is immense. NASA satellites confirm that extreme wildfire activity has more than doubled worldwide, with fire seasons stretching well beyond summer months 5 . The past decade has seen a significant uptick in costly, deadly fires strongly linked to climate change 7 .
A Warming Planet
Human-caused climate change is the main driver behind increasing fire weather in the American West. Hotter temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and decreasing summer rainfall create a tinderbox environment 5 .
Fuel-Built Landscapes
Historical fire suppression has led to a dangerous buildup of fuels in many forests. This combination of more fuel and warmer, drier conditions creates the perfect recipe for extreme fires 5 .
The key insight is that resources for fire management are finite. We cannot protect every acre with equal effort. The wildfire triage method provides a science-based system for making these tough decisions.
The Science of Wildfire Triage: A New Framework
The wildfire triage framework, developed by researchers from the Rocky Mountain Research Station and Western Wildland Threat Assessment Center, is an interdisciplinary approach that combines fire modeling, ecology, economics, and social sciences 1 .
At its core, the process involves several key steps designed to answer two critical questions: Where is a fire likely to occur and how intense will it be? and What valuable resources are in its path, and how would they be affected?
By combining the likelihood of fire, its predicted intensity, and the location and vulnerability of key resources, managers can create a risk map. This pinpoints the areas where fire poses the greatest threat to sensitive resources, and crucially, identifies places where fire could be beneficial and might be safely managed rather than suppressed 1 .
Key Concepts: How Triage Works
Predictive Fire Modeling
Scientists use advanced computer simulations to map the likely distribution and intensity of wildfires across a landscape. Tools like FlamMap integrate data on topography, fuels, and weather to project fire behavior 9 . This tells managers not just where fires might start, but how hot and fast they might spread.
Identifying Valued Resources
Not all assets are equal. The process involves mapping the location of highly valued resources. This goes beyond houses to include critical infrastructure, vital wildlife habitat, culturally significant sites, and water sources for communities 1 .
Understanding Fire Response
Through expert input, scientists categorize how each resource responds to different fire intensity levels. For example, a high-intensity fire might destroy a suburban neighborhood but could benefit a fire-adapted ecosystem by clearing out undergrowth and releasing nutrients. The triage framework accounts for both negative and positive responses to fire 1 .
Risk Calculation and Decision-Making
By combining the likelihood of fire, its predicted intensity, and the location and vulnerability of key resources, managers can create a risk map. This pinpoints the areas where fire poses the greatest threat to sensitive resources, and crucially, identifies places where fire could be beneficial and might be safely managed rather than suppressed 1 .
In the Scientist's Toolkit: The Gear for Modern Fire Management
Implementing the wildfire triage method requires a sophisticated suite of tools and data. Here are the essential components researchers use to map risk and guide decisions.
| Tool/Data | Function in Wildfire Triage |
|---|---|
| Satellite Remote Sensing (e.g., NASA's MODIS/VIIRS) | Provides near-real-time data on active fires, burned areas, and vegetation health, offering a big-picture view of fire activity and fuels 5 . |
| Fire Behavior Models (e.g., FlamMap, CAWFE) | Simulates how a fire will spread and how intense it will be under different weather, fuel, and topographic conditions 9 . |
| Geographic Information Systems (GIS) & GeoAI | Integrates and analyzes all spatial data—from fire models to resource maps—to identify high-risk zones and optimal project areas 3 . |
| Fuel Model Classifications (e.g., Scott & Burgan models) | Categorizes vegetation into standard models based on its potential to burn and carry fire, which is a critical input for fire simulations 9 . |
| Digital Elevation Models (DEM) | Provides detailed topography data (elevation, slope, aspect) that significantly influences fire spread speed and direction 9 . |
| Socio-Economic & Ecological Resource Data | The "what we value" data, including maps of homes, power lines, wildlife habitats, recreational areas, and cultural sites 1 . |
A Closer Look: Testing Firebreaks with FlamMap
To see how the triage process can be applied on the ground, consider a 2025 study conducted in the Metropolitan District of Quito, Ecuador. This research provides a perfect example of using predictive modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a specific mitigation tactic: firebreaks 9 .
Firebreaks are barriers free of flammable material that are designed to stop or slow the progress of a wildfire. The question for land managers is: Where should we place these costly firebreaks to get the most protection for our investment?
Methodology: A Digital Proving Ground
The research team set up a virtual experiment using FlamMap fire simulation software 9 :
Scientists assembled a detailed digital landscape file of nine high-risk areas around Quito. This included topographical data (elevation, slope), meteorological records, and a crucial layer: fuel models. Since specific fuel data wasn't available, they ingeniously matched the national land-cover map to the standard Scott and Burgan fuel models based on vegetation type and condition 9 .
The team used OpenStreetMap data to locate all existing features that could act as natural or artificial firebreaks, such as roads, rivers, and rocky ridges 9 .
Researchers ran multiple simulations for each area:
- A baseline scenario with no firebreaks.
- A scenario with adapted existing barriers (e.g., clearing vegetation from the sides of a road to enhance its effectiveness).
- A scenario that added new, strategically placed firebreaks to the adapted existing ones 9 .
The key metric was the reduction in total burned area compared to the baseline scenario.
Results and Analysis: A Clear Win for Strategy
The simulation results, summarized below, provided compelling, quantifiable evidence for the value of strategic firebreak planning.
| Study Area | Burned Area Reduction (Adapted Existing Barriers) | Burned Area Reduction (With New Proposed Firebreaks) |
|---|---|---|
| Sincholagua Volcano | 41.5% | 68.9% |
| Atahualpa Parish | 45.1% | 72.3% |
| San Antonio Parish | 40.2% | 65.8% |
| Puellaro Parish | 43.8% | 71.1% |
| Pasochoa Volcano | 44.0% | 70.5% |
| Average Across All Areas | 42.6% | 70.2% |
The results were striking. Simply by adapting existing features like roads and streams, the average burned area could be reduced by 42.6%. However, by adding new, strategically located firebreaks identified through the optimization process, the reduction could reach 70.2% 9 .
This experiment powerfully demonstrates the core principle of wildfire triage: targeted, data-driven interventions are far more effective than blanket approaches. It shows land managers exactly where to invest limited resources for the greatest possible return in community safety.
Beyond the Model: Triage in Action
The principles of wildfire triage are already being used to reshape policy and on-the-ground practices:
Integrating Indigenous Knowledge
States like California are now funding the expansion of cultural burning, reviving the ancient Indigenous practice of using "good fire" to safely reduce fuels and maintain ecosystem health 6 .
Home Hardening and Community Action
The most effective action for protecting homes is creating defensible space and hardening structures. Simple steps like replacing vents with fine mesh screens, clearing debris from roofs, and replacing flammable plants with rock beds can dramatically reduce a home's risk 6 .
The Power of Building Codes
The adoption of fortified building codes, such as California's Chapter 7A, establishes minimum standards for construction in fire-prone areas, making homes inherently more resistant to flames and embers 6 .
A More Resilient Future
The era of trying to suppress all wildfire is over. The new science of wildfire triage offers a smarter, more nuanced path forward. By using interdisciplinary tools to understand fire behavior and clearly identify what we value most, we can move from a reactive war on fire to a proactive strategy of coexistence and resilience.
This approach allows us to fight fires where necessary, let them burn when beneficial, and focus our efforts on protecting the social, economic, and ecological resources that are truly irreplaceable. In a flammable world, knowing what to save is the first step to keeping it safe.